Capstone Exercises

1. Specify the Decision Problem

Objectives

• Clarify the decision problem you are addressing
• Describe
  • Current public health concern
  • Health condition(s) you are modeling
  • Specific population(s) affected
  • Current and alternative strategies

Deliverables

Create initial slides for final presentation that introduce your decision problem

• Slide 1: Title
• Slide 2: Background
• Slide 3: Objective/Decision problem and economic/clinical outcomes
• Slide 4: Strategy options

Examples

Assess the cost-effectiveness of community-based A, community-based B, and hospital-based hypertension screening options among Thai population aged 18+

Examples

Assess the cost-effectiveness of community-based A, community-based B, and hospital-based hypertension screening options among Thai population aged 18+

Assess the tradeoffs of implementing mass rotavirus vaccination of newborns in India

Examples

Assess the cost-effectiveness of community-based A, community-based B, and hospital-based hypertension screening options among Thai population aged 18+

Assess the tradeoffs of implementing mass rotavirus vaccination of newborns in India

Compare cost-effectiveness of strategies for prevention of malaria: Distribution of insecticide-treated nets Seasonal malaria prophylaxis

2. Build a Decision Tree

Objectives

• Construct a decision tree in Amua comparing the status quo to your specific strategy(ies)
• Parameterize decision tree and estimate outcomes

Deliverables

• Create slide for final presentation that graphically displays your decision options using a decision tree
• Slide 5 – Decision tree graphic with expected values

3. Group Work

Objectives

• Work as a team to refine your decision problem and strategies based on your Amua decision tree

Deliverables

• Refined descriptions of decision problem and strategies
  • Slide 3 – Objective/Decision problem
  • Slide 4 – Strategy options

4. Paired Group Discussions

Objectives

• Present Background, Objective/Decision Problem, and Strategy Options to other team
  • 5-minute presentation
• Provide feedback on clarity and completeness of descriptions
• Switch presenting team/feedback team at halfway point

Deliverables

• Refined descriptions of background, decision problem, and strategies
  • Slide 2 – Background
  • Slide 3 – Objective/Decision problem
  • Slide 4 – Strategy options

5. Design a Markov Model

Objectives

• Use your decision problem and strategies from slides 3, 4, and 5
  • Determine the health states of the decision problem
  • Determine the transitions
  • Determine parameters
    • Population
    • Cycle length
    • Time horizon
    • Probabilities (fill in later)

Deliverables

• Create slide for final presentation that displays your decision problem as a Markov schematic
  • A good resource to use is draw.io
• Slide 6 – bubble diagram graphic, parameter table headers, transition matrix framework

6. Build and Run the Markov Model

Objectives

• Determine parameter estimates and complete the parameter table
• Determine transition probabilities and fill in the transition matrix
• Run Markov model in Amua

Deliverables

• Create slides for final presentation that fills in and documents your Markov model inputs and calculation
  • Slide 7 – filled in parameter table, transition matrix
  • Slide 8 – Markov bubble schematic and “reward” calculations